Environmental protection tighten superimposed gas tight vinyl acetate abdominal enemies

Vinyl acetate market in 2017 after two rounds of push up. At the beginning of the second quarter, vinyl acetate ushered in the overhaul season. Ningxia Earth, Inner Mongolia Shuangxin and Shanxi Three-dimensional, together with Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd., stopped its parking at the end of the first quarter of the year. As a result, the overall operating rate of the vinyl acetate market dropped to an annual low. Bring a push up. Affected by Hurricane "Harvey" in the third quarter, the international installations successively declared force majeure and the enthusiasm of the export market went up. Meanwhile, the domestic market tightened the spot price of vinyl acetate once again. In addition, the raw material acetic acid price went higher after November and the profit margin Space is limited, the operating rate once again reduced, but also to help the end of the price of vinyl acetate one after another rise.

Overall, the overall production capacity in 2018 is in a stable condition. However, the tightening of environmental protection policies and the shortage of natural gas will make the market of vinyl acetate vulnerable.

As of 2017, the effective market capacity of vinyl acetate reached 3.1 million tons due to the impact of the second annual production of 250,000 tons of Mengwei plant. In 2017, vinyl acetate production totaled 1.9 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons over 2016.

Although the new vinyl acetate project was not put into operation in 2018, overall production is expected to remain high due to significantly fewer maintenance and repair plans than in 2017. In 2017, a number of sets of vinyl acetate plants have been overhaul. Given that the annual maintenance cycle of most vinyl acetate units in China is two years, most of the plants indicated no maintenance plan in 2018.

Last year in December, by the device restrictions, vinyl acetate operating rate dropped below 30%, resulting in significantly tighter supply of vinyl acetate market. In 2018, if the kit is tested to improve calcium carbide equipment, or will provide a stable output of vinyl acetate supply side good factors. As a whole, vinyl acetate supply in 2018 will be more stable than in 2017.

Most of the vinyl acetate market players should be concerned about the EVA industry, although the current demand for EVA accounted for only about 6% of the apparent demand for vinyl acetate, EVA in recent years, the rate of expansion of new capacity attract people's attention. Asian markets account for 50% of global EVA demand. China's EVA market relies heavily on imports until 2016. At its peak, import dependency reached nearly 65%. From 2010 to 2016, domestic EVA production capacity will remain at about 500,000 tons, but from 2016 to 2017, a total of 472,000 tons of domestic EVA production will be erupted. According to An Xun Si statistics, EVA production capacity in 2020 is expected to reach 1.8 million tons / year, ethylene vinyl acetate demand is huge, Shenghong Group and the Hong Wang Group have 100,000 tons of ethylene production capacity of law plans to put into operation in 2020 , Or will form a new pattern of production capacity of vinyl acetate.

The first quarter is still heating season, does not rule out the continued tightness of natural gas, or will be on the cost of natural gas and acetic acid vinyl acetate supply side caused some pressure.

Vinyl acetate is less directly affected as an intermediate chemical, but its downstream exposure to PVA, which accounts for nearly 65% ​​of total consumption, or to less than 10% of VAE emulsions, has spread to varying degrees. Some large-scale terminal enterprises have stepped up investment in environmental protection equipment. Some medium-sized factories claim that they can only produce 3 to 4 days of normal production a week, while most of the terminal small factories are shut down, making this the fourth quarter of the off-season, with more demand To be weak. The 2018 environmental inspection efforts are expected to continue to increase, both upstream and downstream of vinyl acetate will be tested.